Vice President Kamala Harris has edged out a slight two-percentage-point lead over former President Donald Trump, following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign and endorse Harris. This finding comes from a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday.
The poll reveals a 44% to 42% lead for Harris over Trump, within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. This marks a shift from last week’s poll, where Biden faced a two-point deficit against Trump before his announcement to step down from the race on Sunday.
Harris’ campaign has announced that she has secured the Democratic nomination. The polling results come in the wake of both the Republican National Convention, where Trump formally accepted the nomination last Thursday, and Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Harris on Sunday.
The data indicates a fluctuating landscape. Harris and Trump were previously tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, with Trump holding a one-point lead in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
While national polls provide a snapshot of overall support, the U.S. Electoral College, determined by a few key battleground states, ultimately decides the presidential election outcome.
Trump’s campaign has downplayed the significance of Harris’ polling lead. Pollster Tony Fabrizio suggested Harris’ rise is a temporary bump driven by the extensive media coverage of her new candidacy. “That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” Fabrizio stated in a memo to reporters.
Despite expectations of a post-convention bump for Trump, the poll reflected no such increase in support for him. The results underscore the strategic decision behind Biden’s exit and Harris’ promotion to the top of the Democratic ticket.
Harris Viewed as Sharper than Biden and Trump
The poll highlighted perceptions of Harris’ cognitive abilities, with 56% of registered voters agreeing that Harris, 59, is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% for Trump, 78, and only 22% for Biden, 81.
Biden’s decision to withdraw followed a debate with Trump where he struggled to respond assertively to Trump’s attacks. Despite high favorability among Democratic voters for Biden (80%), Harris enjoys even greater support at 91%. A significant 75% of Democratic voters believe the party should now rally behind Harris, while only 25% favor a competitive primary for the nomination.
In a hypothetical three-way race including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris still led Trump by a wider margin of 42% to 38%, with Kennedy capturing 8% of the vote. However, Kennedy has yet to secure ballot access in many states.
On Tuesday, Harris campaigned in Wisconsin, a crucial battleground state. With major party figures rallying behind her, the focus now shifts to her selection of a running mate.
The poll found that many voters are unfamiliar with potential vice-presidential picks. About 25% of registered voters had never heard of U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, despite his highest favorability rating among potential picks at 37%. Similarly, 33% were unfamiliar with California Governor Gavin Newsom, and half had never heard of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Two-thirds of respondents knew nothing about Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters, through an online platform.
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