By Razi Tahir, Islamabad
The Middle East is on the brink of a potential large-scale conflict as various resistance groups across the region find themselves with unresolved grievances against Israel. Recent events have heightened these tensions, bringing the possibility of a regional war closer than ever.
Unresolved Grievances
Hezbollah (Lebanon): The assassination of a key Hezbollah commander in the heart of Beirut has intensified their longstanding conflict with Israel. This act has fueled Hezbollah’s desire for retribution.
Iran:
The recent killing of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian territory has sparked outrage. Iran views this as a significant provocation, increasing its resolve to retaliate against Israel.
Hamas (Palestine):
The assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and potentially Muhammad Deif have further strained relations. Hamas, already engaged in a prolonged struggle, now faces even more motivation to act.
Yemen:
Last week’s Israeli airstrikes on the al-Hodeidah port have drawn Yemen into the fray, adding another layer to the complex web of regional tensions.
Iraqi Resistance:
The killing of several Iraqi servicemen by a U.S. airstrike, perceived as being allied with Israeli interests, has added Iraq’s voice to those calling for action against Israel.
These grievances, accumulated over time, have created a volatile environment where the likelihood of conflict is increasing.
The Imminent Threat of All-Out War
Recent developments suggest that a regional conflict might erupt in the coming days:
Iran’s Response:
In the wake of today’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered strikes on Israeli military targets in Haifa and Tel Aviv. U.S. intelligence reports suggest these strikes could occur within the next 72 hours.
Strategic Calculations:
According to intelligence sources, Iran has learned from past encounters. Previously, Iran delayed its response to the April 13th attacks to gauge international reactions and assess Israel’s defense capabilities. This strategic pause allowed Iran to gather vital information on Israeli and allied air defenses.
Preparedness:
Armed with a comprehensive understanding of Israeli defenses, Iran is better equipped to plan its attacks and exploit potential weaknesses.
Expanding Alliances and Preparedness
Hezbollah and the Ansarullah (Known as Houthis):
Hezbollah, along with the Ansarullah from Yemen, has expressed its intention to join Iran in striking Israel. This coalition signals a significant escalation and a broader regional involvement.
Syrian Involvement:
A senior Hezbollah official has called on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s brother to ready the elite Syrian 4th Armored Division. This move suggests plans to reopen the Golan front and potentially seize the Golan Heights from Israel.
Diplomatic Exchanges:
Israel has communicated its readiness for a full-scale conflict to Iran and Lebanon through diplomatic channels. France has cautioned Hezbollah about Israel’s potential for massive retaliation if any rules of engagement are breached. Hezbollah’s response, however, was defiant: “We cannot de-escalate, and you will see our response soon. There are no rules after the Beirut assassination.”
Military Maneuvers
Iran’s Defense Strategy:
Iran is bolstering its air defense systems around Tehran in anticipation of potential Israeli retaliation.
Regional Coordination:
Israel has conducted secret meetings with Jordan and the U.S. CENTCOM to enhance Jordan’s air defenses. This collaboration aims to intercept any Iranian missiles or drones targeting Israel.
U.S. Military Mobilization:
A Pentagon official has stated, “We have urgently mobilized 12 warships in the Middle East following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and the bombing in Beirut. The alert level is at its highest, and we are prepared.”
Conclusion: The Path Ahead
To avoid a devastating regional conflict, it is crucial for Israel to reconsider its actions and de-escalate the current tensions. Iran feels compelled to retaliate in response to recent provocations, which is important for their integrity. Ultimately, finding a solution to the Palestine issue is essential for achieving lasting peace in the region and beyond. The international community must come together to promote dialogue and resolve these longstanding conflicts for the sake of global peace and security.
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